State modeling shows many elementary schools in Cumberland County fall below the level of vaccination coverage for measles, mumps, and rubella needed for preventing outbreaks.
An estimated 80% of elementary schools included in state vaccination reporting for the county fall below the 95% vaccination threshold, according to modeling from the North Carolina Department of Health and Human Services.
With 24 measles cases in the state since December, and the nation’s largest outbreak unfolding just over the state line in South Carolina, vaccination rates at schools are receiving renewed attention. Public health officials said vaccination levels within individual schools play a major role in determining whether outbreaks can spread if the virus is introduced.
State vaccination estimates are available for 65 elementary schools in Cumberland County. Of those schools, 45 fall below the 95% threshold, while 20 meet or exceed it.
Overall vaccination coverage across elementary schools in the county is estimated at about 90%, according to the state measles vaccination data dashboard.
Vaccination coverage varies widely by school in the county, ranging from about 49% at the school with the lowest vaccination rate to nearly 100% at the highest-covered schools.
The state dataset includes both public and private elementary schools and does not represent all schools operated by Cumberland County Schools. Some schools are not included due to reporting limitations or data suppression.
The estimates are derived from North Carolina kindergarten immunization reporting and national CDC vaccination coverage survey modeling and are not official district-reported school vaccination totals.
CCS Not on High-Risk Measles List
Despite variations in vaccination coverage among schools across the county, Cumberland County Schools (CCS) officials said the district does not meet the state’s criteria for inclusion on the high-risk school list for a measles outbreak.
State public health officials evaluate measles outbreak risk primarily at the school level rather than designating entire districts high risk.
District officials said they monitor immunization compliance for all enrolled students and follow North Carolina’s vaccination documentation requirements.
Students have 30 calendar days from their first day of attendance to provide required immunization records. Those who do not provide documentation within that timeframe may be dismissed until requirements are met, in accordance with state law.
“Our Health Services team works year-round to support families in meeting immunization requirements by connecting them with healthcare providers and public health resources,” said Shirley Bolden, director of CCS Health Services. “Through ongoing monitoring, outreach and annual immunization clinics, we aim to ensure student health and safety while minimizing disruptions to learning.”
Officials said the district tracks immunization documentation for each school but does not maintain aggregated, school-by-school measles vaccination rates across all elementary schools.
Pockets of Lower Vaccination Coverage
State immunization modeling suggests overall measles vaccination coverage across elementary schools in Cumberland County is about 90%, which is below the 95% level commonly associated with preventing outbreaks.
Similar school-level vaccination analysis in southeastern North Carolina’s Border Belt region has also found variation in vaccination coverage across elementary schools.
Public health officials said overall averages do not fully capture risk if vaccination coverage varies significantly from school to school.
“The public should take action to reduce the risk of measles in the community,” said Diane Rice, communications director for the county, pointing to the North Carolina cases and the outbreak in South Carolina.
Even in areas with moderate overall vaccination coverage, clusters of under-vaccinated students can increase the likelihood of transmission if measles is introduced.
State modeling shows vaccination coverage at several elementary schools in the county falls well below the level typically associated with herd immunity. Examples include:
- Grace Community School—about 49%
- Ferguson-Easley Elementary—about 69%
- Riverside Christian Academy — about 70%
- Northwood Temple Academy—about 74%
- Sunnyside Elementary—about 78%
Public health guidance indicates that concentrations of unvaccinated or under-vaccinated students can increase outbreak risk even when overall countywide vaccination coverage appears relatively strong.
Rice said coordination between schools and public health agencies would be critical if a measles case was identified locally.
A vaccination coverage threshold of 95% is necessary to protect against a measles outbreak, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Two doses of measles vaccine are 97% effective at preventing measles for life, the CDC said.