As Tropical Storm Debby loiters off the Southeast coast, central North Carolina braces for potentially inundating rainfall — perhaps a summer’s worth of rain in 3-4 days.
The National Weather Service in Raleigh predicts more than a foot of rain across the Sandhills through Friday. As of now, rainfall projections for cities in the region include more than 15 inches in Lumberton, up to 14 inches in Laurinburg, 12 inches for Fayetteville, Southern Pines and Dunn, 10-12 inches in Sanford and 10 inches in the Raleigh-Durham area. Totals will vary widely as feeder bands from Debby pass through.
Add the recent wet July, with 6-8 inches of rain in Fayetteville and more than a foot in parts of Harnett and Lee counties, and the region faces a serious threat of fresh-water flooding. The national Weather Prediction Center has placed the region under a high risk of excessive rainfall through Friday, and Cumberland County and municipalities inside the county declared states of emergency.
“The areas most likely to be hit hardest by the rain will be highly dependent on the track of the storm’s center,” said NWS Raleigh meteorologist-in-charge Jonathan Blaes in Tuesday’s forecast. “That track is still highly uncertain.”
As of Tuesday, the Hurricane Prediction Center anticipates Debby will meander off the Georgia-South Carolina coast for much of the day, eventually reaching the South Carolina coast south of the Grand Strand.
That path is west of earlier projections, which is not good for central North Carolina. The previous track, coming ashore well up the North Carolina coast, would have spared much of the region from inundating rainfall. As of now, the heaviest rainfall is projected to move into our part of the state.
Although the interior structure of the storm has collapsed, making additional strengthening unlikely, Debby still carries a tremendous amount of tropical moisture. That moisture, with rainfall rates of two inches per hour or more already recorded, will slosh ashore with the storm and move over the Pee Dee section of South Carolina into the Sandhills late Wednesday and Thursday.
In addition, landfalling tropical systems are notorious for producing quick-hitting spin-up tornadoes to the east and northeast of the storm’s center. Given the current projected path, that would put areas from Lumberton to Fayetteville and Sanford at a greater risk Wednesday and Thursday. A tornado watch has already been posted for the extreme southern Sandhills. Expect watches to extend north on Wednesday.
But the greater threat remains rainfall. Fayetteville’s two-day record for rain came with Hurricane Florence, 12.1 inches in September 2018. Florence was a similar setup to Debby — a slow-moving decaying tropical system that unloaded up to three feet of rain in Bladen County. Those records could be threatened by Debby.
Gusts of tropical storm force are expected by Thursday morning. However, excessive rainfall will weaken tree roots already soaked by July’s rain. It won’t take much wind to knock them over onto power lines.
People in low-lying areas or along creeks and rivers should closely monitor conditions as they develop. Given the possibility of tree-related power outages, it’s also a good idea to have cell phones and portable battery storage charged up.
For more information about office and school closures in Fayetteville and Cumberland County, read our story.
Chick Jacobs can be reached at ncweatherhound@gmail.com. If you have been impacted by Tropical Storm Debby, email talk@cityviewnc.com to share your experiences. Get regular updates through CityView Today, our free newsletter, here.
