In Cumberland County, there’s not enough housing and what’s available is unaffordable for many

Real estate professionals, local elected officials and business leaders gathered Tuesday at the Crown Coliseum in Fayetteville were presented with a dire message: a large portion of Cumberland County’s growing workforce cannot afford to live here.  

That’s according to Patrick Bowen, founder and president of the national real estate market analysis company Bowen National Research, who presented findings of the 2024 Carolina Core Housing Needs Assessment to attendees of the Longleaf Pine Realtors’ 2025 State of the Real Estate Market. The needs assessment examined real estate market and housing trends in 21 counties in North Carolina, mostly concentrating on counties in the Piedmont region but also extending east to include Cumberland County and several of its neighbors. 

Bowen said there is an acute shortage of housing inventory for both multi-family rental housing and single-family homes in Cumberland County, a supply shortage that is particularly concerning given the county’s projected growth of 1,830 households (a 1.4% increase) between 2023 and 2028. 

The study also found: 

• In order to accommodate new growth and the existing need for housing among residents, the county needs 8,344 more rental units and 9,050 more homes by 2029. 
• Cumberland County’s housing supply gap is the highest among the four counties Bowen focused his presentation on, which included Cumberland, Hoke, Harnett and Lee counties. 
• Cumberland County’s rental unit vacancy rate is 6.3%, accounting for 951 empty units. While Bowen said this is a healthy rental vacancy rate, he noted that the available units are not affordable for the low-to-moderate income households who need them the most. There are no available rental units for tax credit or government-subsidized housing. 
• For renters, the supply gap is highest for low-to-moderate income households making between $38,950 and $62,320. This group accounts for 5,563 of the 8,344 rental units needed. 
• For homebuyers, the supply gap is highest among households making between $93,481 and $116,850. This group accounts for 3,718 of the 9,050 homes for sale needed.  
• Cumberland County’s median household income is $54,416. Nearly half of renters in the county are cost-burdened, meaning more than 30% of their income goes toward paying rent. About a quarter of homeowners in the county are cost-burdened, meaning more than 30% of their income goes toward paying their mortgage. 
• In Cumberland County, 0.7% of homes for sale were available in May 2024, which Bowen said is well below the 2-3% range for a healthy market.

Cumberland County had only 1.2 months of housing supply in May 2024, according to the study. This figure indicates how long it would take to sell all the current homes on the market.

“It doesn’t matter if I look at availability rates or months of supply,” Bowen said. “The message is we are very underserved.”

Lack of affordable housing

Bowen said there is no one factor contributing to supply shortage, but it’s a confluence of several factors such as population growth, a high demand for affordable housing for low-to-moderate income groups, insufficient or substandard existing housing, development barriers and a large number of commuters who would like to live here if housing was available. 

Affordability is a “major obstacle” for Cumberland County residents, Bowen said. Prices for single-family homes have continually increased over the past five years. Since 2020, the annual median home sale price — the point at which half of the homes were sold for more and half were sold for less — has increased by $80,000 in Cumberland County, Bowen said. The median list price for a home was about $250,000 last year.

“I’m gonna go out on a limb and say that very few people’s incomes have climbed by $80,000 since 2020,” Bowen said. “So you could see how affordability is just getting further and further out of reach.” 

For the 20 most common occupations in Cumberland County, rental prices are unaffordable with the income they are making, Bowen said. 

“This is the bulk of your workforce [and they] can’t afford rent,” Bowen said. “You better have a second wage earner, you better have a second job or you are going to be one of those people.” 

Home ownership is even more unattainable for single-wage earners of the most common professions. 

“This is essentially saying if you will have these occupations and you’re on your own, forget about home ownership,” Bowen said. “It’s so far out of reach.” 

Bowen emphasized that the lack of affordable housing has a ripple effect on the entire economy. For example, the study examined how the lack of affordable housing affects employers. Of the 214 employers surveyed in the study, almost 80% said a lack of affordable housing is adversely affecting their employees, with the majority noting it caused them problems with worker retention and recruitment. Bowen said over 30% of employers surveyed said they would hire more employees if they could resolve the issue of affordable housing. 

“That’s a powerful message for people to understand,” Bowen said. “The workers are struggling financially to be able to live, rent or buy in the communities, and employers are feeling that. And employers could grow more, invest more, hire more if we could solve our local housing issues.”

The Longleaf Pine Realtors association tracks local housing market statistics each month. The latest Cumberland County data is available here.

Contact Evey Weisblat at eweisblat@cityviewnc.com or 216-527-3608. This story was made possible by donations from readers like you to CityView News Fund, a 501(c)(3) charitable organization committed to an informed democracy in Fayetteville and Cumberland County.